Andy Tang

Macquarie University


Andy is currently pursuing a Bachelor Degree in Actuarial Studies and Science majoring in Statistics at Macquarie University, having just completed the third year of the program. He has a natural curiosity in Probability Theory, Combinatorics, Statistics, Stochastic Modelling and Computer Programming. Andy can’t wait to begin his Vacation Research Scholarship project as it will allow him to combine his passions in these fields.

Analysis of Chances of Winning in a Poker Game: Combinatorial Probability and the Law of Large Numbers

Enumerative combinatorics and generating functions play an important role in solving probabilistic problems. The law of large numbers comes in handy when calculating complex probabilistic problems where computer simulations are required to solve efficiently. These tools will be used to solve probabilistic problems in the gambling game Texas Hold ‘Em Poker. Comprehensive statistical analysis of common poker situations will be provided. Variables that will be considered in the analysis are the amount of starting chips, betting styles, starting hand ranges, likelihood of bluffing, number of players and rake. Different playing strategies will be compared using simulations. The Martingale betting strategy in poker will also be explored. It is envisaged that no playing strategies are profitable in the long run when rake is in play, therefore gambling should not be encouraged.

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