Control Strategies for a Superspreading Virus at Very Low Prevalence

A particular challenge from SARS-CoV-2 is that rare superspreading events account for much of the transmission. So while many cases may have almost no impact, a handful will have very large impact. The resources devoted to tracing the contacts of each individual infection need to be adequate to handle a superspreading event, even if the majority of the time no further transmission occurs. We will develop a mixture of simulation and theory to analyse the effectiveness of contact tracing at very low prevalence (near elimination) of a superspreading disease. This will build on recent work by the supervisor developing much of the toolkit required for both the theory and the simulation, as well as extending some of his existing mathematical modelling of the impact of superspreading events.

Kristian Caracciolo

La Trobe University

Kristian Caracciolo is a student at La Trobe University beginning his masters in nanotechnology in 2021. He has majored in maths and physics through his undergraduate completing projects in optical vectorial ptychography and atomic force microscopy of phospholipid bilayers. Since 2017, Kristian has worked as a peer learning advisor for La Trobe University where he provides fellow students to write reports, essays and literature reviews in every discipline from history to health sciences. Kristian enjoys exploring new, challenging problems in many fields despite the stress that often accompanies those problems.

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